第五屆行政長官選舉將會於本星期日(三月二十六日)舉行,1,194名選委將會從曾俊華、林鄭月娥及胡國興三名候選人中選出未來五年帶領特區政府的首長。以下各項是特首選舉的基本需知 。

The Chief Executive (CE) election will be held this Sunday (March 26th). 1,194 Election Committee members will elect the new CE, who will lead the HKSAR government for the coming five years. The three candidates are John Tsang Chun-wah, Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor and Woo Kwok-hing. We have compiled some basic information about the election to prepare you for it.

特首選舉2017政綱比併 -《香港01》
https://goo.gl/znZzUZ


(一)什麼是選舉委員會?

二零一七年的政改方案前年在立法會被大比數否決,因此今屆行政長官選舉與二零一二年一樣,由1,200人組成的選舉委員會選出。選舉委員會由來自38個界別的委員組成,他們能夠投下關乎香港未來關鍵的一票。大部分選委由近24萬界別選民選出,界別選民的數目佔全港合資格選民少於7%,因此經常被批評選民基礎不足。

本屆選舉委員會中有部分當然選委身份重疊,加上青年新政游蕙禎與梁頌恆喪失當然選委議席,因此實質只有1,194名選委。選舉委員中,非建制派掌控327席,而建制派則佔其餘大多數。

1. What is the Election Committee?

The 2017 electoral reform proposal was voted down by the Legislative Council, and that means the election method of this CE Election will be the same as the one in 2012: the CE will be elected by 1,200 Election Committee members. The Committee is comprised of members from 38 sectors, each with the power to cast a vote decisive for the future of Hong Kong. The majority of Election Committee members are elected by about 240,000 voters - this is less than 7% of registered electorate in Hong Kong. This may explain why the Election Committee is often criticised for lacking a sufficient electorate base.

There are only 1,194 members in the current Election Committee. Some members hold multiple positions that would automatically earn them ex-official membership of the Committee, while Yau Wai-ching and Leung Chung-hang of Youngspiration both lost their seats in the Election Committee from the oath-taking fiasco. Of all the members in the committee, 327 belong to the non-establishment camp and the vast majority of the remaining seats are held by the pro-establishment camp.

選委名單勢力圖 -《香港01》
https://goo.gl/NCLlUm


(二)選舉的投票流程為何?

首輪投票將於三月二十六日早上九時舉行。選委可從三名候選人中不記名投票予其中一人,候選人必須得到600票以上才能當選。一旦沒有候選人能夠在首輪投票取得超過600票,最低票的候選人將被淘汰,而獲得最高票的兩位候選人將進入第二輪投票。若在首輪得票最少的兩位候選人票數相同,則會重複投票,直至只剩下兩名候選人為止。

次輪投票將會在即日下午舉行,並進行單次投票。若次輪投票同樣沒有候選人能夠取得超過600票,選舉會被終止,並將會在42日後,即五月七日再次進行投票。

第五屆行政長官將會於七月一日宣誓就職。

2. What is the election procedure?

The 1st round of voting will be held on the morning of March 26th at 9 a.m. Election Committee members can vote for one of the three candidates in a secret ballot. The candidate must receive over 600 votes to win the election. If none of the candidates receive more than 600 votes in the first round, the candidate with the fewest votes will be eliminated, while the other two with more votes will enter the 2nd round of voting. If the two candidates with the fewest votes receive the same number of votes in the 1st round, the voting process will be repeated until there are only two candidates left for the 2nd round.

The 2nd round of voting will be held in the afternoon. If also none of the candidates receive more than 600 votes in the 2nd round, the election will be adjourned for 42 days, and will recommence on May 7th.

The fifth CE will be sworn in on July 1st.


(三)行政長官如何被任命?

《基本法》第四十五條指明,行政長官「在當地通過選舉或協商產生,由中央人民政府任命」。有部分論者認為《基本法》草擬的原意,特首任命權只是「榮譽式」和「象徵性」。但近日不少中央官員表示中央政府擁有特首的實質任命權。《基本法》委員會委員、港大法律學院教授陳弘毅早前表示同意中央對特首擁有實質任命權,有機會不任命選出的特首,惟現在《基本法》沒有提到不任命的法理基礎和程序;他認為現階段若中央不任命選舉產生的特首,問題會「相當複雜」。

3. How is the CE appointed?

According to Article 45 of the Basic Law, the CE "shall be selected by election or through consultations held locally and be appointed by the Central People's Government.” Some believe that the right to appoint was originally intended to be “honorary” and “symbolic”. However, a few Central Government officials recently stated that the Central Government in fact possesses a substantial right to appoint. Chen Hung-yee, a member of the Basic Law Committee and a Professor in the Faculty of Law at the University of Hong Kong, expressed earlier his concurrence with the interpretation of the Central Government officials. This implies that the Central Government can decide not to appoint the CE elected. However, the legal basis and the procedure following the refusal to appoint the CE are not mentioned in the Basic Law. Chen believes that a lot of complications will arise if the Central Government decides to exercise this power.

郝的立法原意 旨在圍魏救趙 | 沈舟 - 《蘋果日報》
https://goo.gl/xucRns

3人爭戰 習近平不干預 - 《都市日報》
https://goo.gl/zfQzUk


(四)民望高低與選舉有何關係?

在是次選舉中,各個候選人均積極地使用不同媒體,爭取市民支持。根據港大民意研究計劃的最新公佈的滾動民調結果(三月二十四日),候選人曾俊華的支持度達56%,遠高於林鄭月娥的28%,而另一候選人胡國興支持度則有9%。港大民意研究計劃總監鍾庭耀指出,雖然廣大市民在是次選舉中並無投票權,但從董健華辭任及梁振英放棄連任等事,均可反映到民意對於政治的影響力。手握三百餘票的泛民選委組織「民主300+」亦指會參考民間全民投票的結果,集中票源予民望最高的候選人。

此外,根據港大民意研究的數據分析,過去三任特首上任時的個人民望亦與「政治蜜月期」的長短有密切關係。第一任特首董建華上任後的首次民調評分為64.5,評分處於60分以上「蜜月期」持續了十個月。曾蔭權上任時的評分有72.3分,為三人中最高,60分以上的評分保持了三年。而梁振英二零一二年上任時只有52.5,更被部分論者剖析為「零蜜月期」的原因。市民對政府的認受性越高,政府的施政應相對地容易。因此,競選時的民望是否能夠影響對於特首上任後的施政實在值得深究。

縱使作為普羅大眾未能直接投票參與特首選舉,但民意能否在特首選舉中左右大局,甚至影響新政府的未來的施政,值得我們關注。

4. Does public opinion matter in this election?

In this election, all candidates have utilised different media platforms to rally public support. According to the most recent opinion poll (on March 24th), John Tsang has a support rate of 56%, higher than that of Carrie Lam (28%), while Woo Kwok-hing has a support rate of 9%. The Director of the Hong Kong University Public Opinion Programme Chung Ting-yiu points out that although the majority of citizens do not have the right to vote in this election, the resignation of Tung Chee-hwa and Leung Chun-ying’s decision to not seek re-election show that popular opinion do play a part in influencing politics. Pan-democratic Election Members, the “Pan-dem 300+” who now hold more than 300 votes, claimed that they will vote for the candidate with the most popular support in conjunction with the result of the Civil Referendum.

In addition, according to the data collected and analysed by the Hong Kong University Public Opinion Programme, there is a correlation between the past three CE’s popularity at the time of swearing in and the length of their “honeymoon periods”. The first CE Tung Chee-hwa had an rating of 64.5 (out of 100) at the beginning of term, and his "honeymoon period”, with rating higher than 60, lasted for 10 months. Donald Tsang had an rating of 72.3 when first sworn in, the highest among the three, and his correspondingly lasted for three years. Leung Chun-ying had the lowest rating of 52.5 when first inaugurated in 2012, so it was claimed by some analysts that he never even had a “honeymoon period”. The more popular support there is for the government, the easier it is for the government to administer. Therefore, it is worth thinking as to whether popularity during the election period would actually affect the governance.

Although majority of the public cannot directly elect the next CE, we shall pay close attention to the election to see whether popular opinion can sway the election and the governance of the new administration.

特首選舉系列(七):主流意見 | 鍾庭耀 - 《立場新聞》
https://goo.gl/zZJUbz

香港民意戰的「關鍵多數」 | 陳智傑 - 《明報》
https://goo.gl/rtQWdi

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